Alveolar echinococcosis: from a deadly disease to a well-controlled infection. Relative survival and economic analysis in Switzerland over the last 35 years

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a serious liver disease. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term prognosis of AE patients, the burden of this disease in Switzerland and the cost-effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: Relative survival analysis was undertaken using a national database with 329 patient records. 155 representative cases had sufficient details regarding treatment costs and patient outcome to estimate the financial implications and treatment costs of AE. RESULTS: For an average 54-year-old patient diagnosed with AE in 1970 the life expectancy was estimated to be reduced by 18.2 and 21.3 years for men and women, respectively. By 2005 this was reduced to approximately 3.5 and 2.6 years, respectively. Patients undergoing radical surgery had a better outcome, whereas the older patients had a poorer prognosis than the younger patients. Costs amount to approximately Euro108,762 per patient. Assuming the improved life expectancy of AE patients is due to modern treatment the cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) saved is approximately Euro6,032. CONCLUSIONS: Current treatments have substantially improved the prognosis of AE patients compared to the 1970s. The cost per DALY saved is low compared to the average national annual income. Hence, AE treatment is highly cost-effective in Switzerland.

Vascular endothelial growth factors, angiogenesis, and survival in human ileal enterochromaffin cell carcinoids

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Well-differentiated neuro-endocrine ileal carcinoids are composed of serotonin-producing enterochromaffin (EC) cells. Life expectancy is determined by metastatic spread to the liver because medical treatment options are still very limited. Selective inhibition of angiogenesis or lymphangiogenesis might prevent tumour growth and metastatic spread. We examined the role of the vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs) A, B, C, D, and their receptors (VEGFRs) 1, 2, 3 in angiogenesis and lymphangiogenesis of ileal EC cell carcinoids with and without liver metastases. METHODS: The expression of various VEGFs and VEGFRs was determined by quantitative real-time RT-PCR in healthy mucosa, primary tumour, lymph node metastases and liver metastases of 25 patients with ileal EC cell carcinoids. Microvessel density (MVD) was determined by CD-31 staining in primary tumours and lymphatic vessel density (LVD) by LYVE-1 staining. VEGF expression levels, MVD, LVD, and patients' survival time were correlated using logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: VEGF-A was highly expressed with no difference between normal mucosa and tumours. VEGF-B and -D as well as VEGFR-1 and -2 expression levels were significantly increased in the tumours when compared to normal mucosa. Patients with liver metastasis, however, had a significantly lower expression of the factors A, B, and C and the receptors 2 and 3. MVD in primary tumours positively correlated with the expression of VEGF ligands and their receptors, except for VEGF-D. LVD did not correlate with any VEGF ligand or receptor. Interestingly, low expression levels of VEGF-B were associated with poor survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with more aggressive metastatic spreading had relatively decreased expression levels of VEGF ligands and receptors. Thus, anti-angiogenic therapy may not be a suitable target in metastatic ileal EC cell carcinoids.

Survival of bonded lingual retainers with chemical or photo polymerization over a 2-year period: a single-center, randomized controlled clinical trial

INTRODUCTION The objective of this trial was to compare the survival rates of mandibular lingual retainers bonded with either chemically cured or light-cured adhesive after orthodontic treatment. METHODS Patients having undergone orthodontic treatment at a private orthodontic office were randomly allocated to fixed retainers placed with chemically cured composite or light-cured composite. Eligibility criteria included no active caries, restorations, or fractures on the mandibular anterior teeth, and adequate oral hygiene. The main outcome was any type of first-time lingual retainer breakage; pattern of failure (adapted adhesive remnant index scores) was a secondary outcome. Randomization was accomplished with random permuted blocks of 20 patients with allocation concealed in sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes. Blinding was applicable for outcome assessment only. Patients were reviewed at 1, 3, and 6 months and then every 6 months after placement of the retainer until completion of the study. Data were analyzed using survival analysis including Cox regression; sensitivity analysis was carried out after data imputation for subjects lost to follow-up. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients (median age, 16 years; interquartile range, 2; range, 12-47 years) were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either chemical or light curing. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, the median follow-up period was 2.19 years (range, 0.003-3.64 years), and 16 patients were lost to follow-up. At a minimum follow-up of 2 years, 47 of 110 (42.7%) and 55 of 110 (50.0%) retainers had some type of failure with chemically cured and light-cured adhesive, respectively (log-rank test, P = 0.35). Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis, and the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.70; P = 0.47). There was weak evidence that age is a significant predictor for lingual retainer failures (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-1.00; P = 0.08). Adhesive remnant index scoring was possible for only 66 of the 102 (64.7%) failures and did not differ between composites (Fisher exact test, P = 0.16). No serious harm was observed other than gingivitis associated with plaque accumulation. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study indicated no evidence that survival of mandibular lingual retainers differs between chemically and light-cured adhesives. The overall failure rate was 46.4%; however, this included any type of failure, which may have exaggerated the overall failure rate.

Additive homeopathy in cancer patients: Retrospective survival data from a homeopathic outpatient unit at the Medical University of Vienna

Background: Current literature suggests a positive influence of additive classical homeopathyon global health and well-being in cancer patients. Besides encouraging case reports, thereis little if any research on long-term survival of patients who obtain homeopathic care duringcancer treatment. Design: Data from cancer patients who had undergone homeopathic treatment complementaryto conventional anti-cancer treatment at the Outpatient Unit for Homeopathy in MalignantDiseases, Medical University Vienna, Department of Medicine I, Vienna, Austria, were collected,described and a retrospective subgroup-analysis with regard to survival time was performed.Patient inclusion criteria were at least three homeopathic consultations, fatal prognosis ofdisease, quantitative and qualitative description of patient characteristics, and survival time. Results: In four years, a total of 538 patients were recorded to have visited the OutpatientUnit Homeopathy in Malignant Diseases, Medical University Vienna, Department of Medicine I, Vienna, Austria. 62.8% of them were women, and nearly 20% had breast cancer. From the 53.7%(n = 287) who had undergone at least three homeopathic consultations within four years, 18.7%(n = 54) fulfilled inclusion criteria for survival analysis. The surveyed neoplasms were glioblas-toma, lung, cholangiocellular and pancreatic carcinomas, metastasized sarcoma, and renal cellcarcinoma. Median overall survival was compared to expert expectations of survival outcomesby specific cancer type and was prolonged across observed cancer entities (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Extended survival time in this sample of cancer patients with fatal prognosis butadditive homeopathic treatment is interesting. However, findings are based on a small sample,and with only limited data available about patient and treatment characteristics. The relationshipbetween homeopathic treatment and survival time requires prospective investigation in largersamples possibly using matched-pair control analysis or randomized trials.

Image analysis of immunohistochemistry is superior to visual scoring as shown for patient outcome of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Quantification of protein expression based on immunohistochemistry (IHC) is an important step in clinical diagnoses and translational tissue-based research. Manual scoring systems are used in order to evaluate protein expression based on staining intensities and distribution patterns. However, visual scoring remains an inherently subjective approach. The aim of our study was to explore whether digital image analysis proves to be an alternative or even superior tool to quantify expression of membrane-bound proteins. We analyzed five membrane-binding biomarkers (HER2, EGFR, pEGFR, β-catenin, and E-cadherin) and performed IHC on tumor tissue microarrays from 153 esophageal adenocarcinomas patients from a single center study. The tissue cores were scored visually applying an established routine scoring system as well as by using digital image analysis obtaining a continuous spectrum of average staining intensity. Subsequently, we compared both assessments by survival analysis as an end point. There were no significant correlations with patient survival using visual scoring of β-catenin, E-cadherin, pEGFR, or HER2. In contrast, the results for digital image analysis approach indicated that there were significant associations with disease-free survival for β-catenin, E-cadherin, pEGFR, and HER2 (P = 0.0125, P = 0.0014, P = 0.0299, and P = 0.0096, respectively). For EGFR, there was a greater association with patient survival when digital image analysis was used compared to when visual scoring was (visual: P = 0.0045, image analysis: P < 0.0001). The results of this study indicated that digital image analysis was superior to visual scoring. Digital image analysis is more sensitive and, therefore, better able to detect biological differences within the tissues with greater accuracy. This increased sensitivity improves the quality of quantification.

Impact of anti-inflammatory treatment on the onset of uveitis in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Longitudinal analysis from a nation-wide paediatric rheumatological database

PURPOSE Based on a nation-wide database, this study analysed the influence of methotrexate (MTX), TNF inhibitors and a combination of the two on uveitis occurrence in JIA patients. METHODS Data from the National Paediatric Rheumatological Database in Germany were used in this study. Between 2002 and 2013, data from JIA patients were annually documented at the participating paediatric rheumatological sites. Patients with JIA disease duration of less than 12 months at initial documentation and ≥2 years of follow-up were included in this study. The impact of anti-inflammatory treatment on the occurrence of uveitis was evaluated by discrete-time survival analysis. RESULTS A total of 3,512 JIA patients (mean age 8.3±4.8 years, female 65.7%, ANA-positive 53.2%, mean age at arthritis onset 7.8±4.8 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Mean total follow-up time was 3.6±2.4 years. Uveitis developed in a total of 180 patients (5.1%) within one year after arthritis onset. Uveitis onset after the first year was observed in another 251 patients (7.1%). DMARD treatment in the year before uveitis onset significantly reduced the risk for uveitis: MTX (HR 0.63, p=0.022), TNF inhibitors (HR 0.56, p<0.001) and a combination of the two (HR 0.10, p<0.001). Patients treated with MTX within the first year of JIA had an even a lower uveitis risk (HR 0.29, p<0.001). CONCLUSION The use of DMARDs in JIA patients significantly reduced the risk for uveitis onset. Early MTX use within the first year of disease and the combination of MTX with a TNF inhibitor had the highest protective effect. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Outcomes in patients waiting for antiretroviral treatment in the Free State Province, South Africa: prospective linkage study

Objective: In South Africa, many HIV-infected patients experience delays in accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART). We examined pretreatment mortality and access to treatment in patients waiting for ART. Design: Cohort of HIV-infected patients assessed for ART eligibility at 36 facilities participating in the Comprehensive HIV and AIDS Management (CHAM) program in the Free State Province. Methods: Proportion of patients initiating ART, pre-ART mortality and risk factors associated with these outcomes were estimated using competing risks survival analysis. Results: Forty-four thousand, eight hundred and forty-four patients enrolled in CHAM between May 2004 and December 2007, of whom 22 083 (49.2%) were eligible for ART; pre-ART mortality was 53.2 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.8–54.7]. Median CD4 cell count at eligibility increased from 87 cells/ml in 2004 to 101 cells/ml in 2007. Two years after eligibility an estimated 67.7% (67.1–68.4%) of patients had started ART, and 26.2% (25.6–26.9%) died before starting ART. Among patients with CD4 cell counts below 25 cells/ml at eligibility, 48% died before ART and 51% initiated ART. Men were less likely to start treatment and more likely to die than women. Patients in rural clinics or clinics with low staffing levels had lower rates of starting treatment and higher mortality compared with patients in urban/peri-urban clinics, or better staffed clinics. Conclusions: Mortality is high in eligible patients waiting for ART in the Free State Province. The most immunocompromised patients had the lowest probability of starting ART and the highest risk of pre-ART death. Prioritization of these patients should reduce waiting times and pre-ART mortality.

Potential biomarkers for hepatoblastoma: Results from the SIOPEL-3 study

Hepatoblastoma (HB) is a rare malignant liver tumour found in infants. Many heterogenous histological tumour subtypes exist. Although survival rates have improved dramatically in recent years with the use of platinum-based chemotherapy, there still exists a subset of HB that does not respond to treatment. There are currently no tumour biomarkers in use and in this study we aim to evaluate potential biomarkers to aid identification of relapse cases that would otherwise be overlooked by current prognostication. This may identify patients that would benefit from more aggressive therapy and could improve overall survival rates. We used immunohistochemistry to analyse the expression of β-catenin, E-cadherin, Cyclin D1, Ki-67 and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) protein in tumours from 91 patients prospectively enroled into the SIOPEL 3 clinical trial. The relationship between these biomarkers and clinicopathologic features and patient survival were statistically analysed. We identified one biomarker, Cyclin D1, which has a correlation with mixed epithelial/mesenchymal HB approaching significance (P=0.07). Survival analysis using these markers has revealed two potential prognostic indicators; Cyclin D1 and Ki-67 (P=0.01, 0.01).

Differential pattern and prognostic significance of CD4+, FOXP3+ and IL-17+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in ductal and lobular breast cancers

Background Clinical relevance of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in breast cancer is controversial. Here, we used a tumor microarray including a large series of ductal and lobular breast cancers with long term follow up data, to analyze clinical impact of TIL expressing specific phenotypes and distribution of TILs within different tumor compartments and in different histological subtypes. Methods A tissue microarray (TMA) including 894 ductal and 164 lobular breast cancers was stained with antibodies recognizing CD4, FOXP3, and IL-17 by standard immunohistochemical techniques. Lymphocyte counts were correlated with clinico-pathological parameters and survival. Results CD4+ lymphocytes were more prevalent than FOXP3+ TILs whereas IL-17+ TILs were rare. Increased numbers of total CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL were observed in ductal, as compared with lobular carcinomas. High grade (G3) and estrogen receptor (ER) negative ductal carcinomas displayed significantly (p < 0.001) higher CD4+ and FOXP3+ lymphocyte infiltration while her2/neu over-expression in ductal carcinomas was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with higher FOXP3+ TIL counts. In contrast, lymphocyte infiltration was not linked to any clinico-pathological parameters in lobular cancers. In univariate but not in multivariate analysis CD4+ infiltration was associated with significantly shorter survival in patients bearing ductal, but not lobular cancers. However, a FOXP3+/CD4+ ratio > 1 was associated with improved overall survival even in multivariate analysis (p = 0.033). Conclusions Ductal and lobular breast cancers appear to be infiltrated by different lymphocyte subpopulations. In ductal cancers increased CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL numbers are associated with more aggressive tumor features. In survival analysis, absolute numbers of TILs do not represent major prognostic indicators in ductal and lobular breast cancer. Remarkably however, a ratio > 1 of total FOXP3+/CD4+ TILs in ductal carcinoma appears to represent an independent favorable prognostic factor.

Registry for the Evaluation of the Prognostik value of a novel integrated imaging approach combining Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography with coronary calcification imaging (REPROSPECT)

AIMS: Although an added diagnostic and prognostic value of the global coronary artery calcification (CAC) score as an adjunct to single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)-myocardial perfusion image (MPI) has been repeatedly documented, none of the previous studies took advantage of the anatomic information provided by the unenhanced cardiac CT. Therefore, no co-registration has so far been used to match a myocardial perfusion defect with calcifications in the subtending coronary artery. To evaluate the prognostic value of integrating SPECT-MPI with CAC images were obtained from non-enhanced cardiac computed tomography (CT) for attenuation correction to predict major adverse cardiac events (MACE). METHODS AND RESULTS: Follow-up was obtained in 462 patients undergoing a 1-day stress/rest (99m)Tc-teterofosmin SPECT and non-enhanced cardiac CT for attenuation correction. Survival free of MACE was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. After integrating MPI and CT findings, patients were divided into three groups (i) MPI defect matched by calcification (CAC ≥ 1) in the subtending coronary artery (ii) unmatched MPI and CT finding (iii) normal finding by MPI and CT. At a mean follow-up of 34.5 ± 13 months, a MACE was observed in 80 patients (33 death, 6 non-fatal myocardial infarction, 9 hospitalizations due to unstable angina, and 32 revascularizations). Survival analysis revealed the most unfavourable outcome (P < 0.001 log-rank test) for patients with a matched finding. CONCLUSION: In the present study, a novel approach using a combined integration of cardiac SPECT-CAC imaging allows for refined risk stratification, as a matched defect emerged as an independent predictor of MACE.

Cyclin D1 (CCND1) A870G gene polymorphism modulates smoking-induced lung cancer risk and response to platinum-based chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients

PURPOSE: The cyclin D1 (CCND1) A870G gene polymorphism is linked to the outcome in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we investigated the impact of this polymorphism on smoking-induced cancer risk and clinical outcome in patients with NSCLC stages I-IV. METHODS: CCND1 A870G genotype was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (RFLP) of DNA extracted from blood. The study included 244 NSCLC patients and 187 healthy control subjects. RESULTS: Patient characteristics were: 70% male, 77% smokers, 43% adenocarcinoma, and 27% squamous cell carcinoma. Eighty-one percent of the patients had stages III-IV disease. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years and median survival was 13 months. Genotype frequencies of patients and controls both conformed to the Hardy Weinberg equilibrium. The GG genotype significantly correlated with a history of heavy smoking (>or=40 py, P=0.02), and patients with this genotype had a significantly higher cigarette consumption than patients with AA/AG genotypes (P=0.007). The GG genotype also significantly correlated with tumor response or stabilization after a platinum-based first-line chemotherapy (P=0.04). Survival analysis revealed no significant differences among the genotypes. CONCLUSION: Evidence was obtained that the CCND1 A870G gene polymorphism modulates smoking-induced lung cancer risk. Further studies are required to explore the underlying molecular mechanisms and to test the value of this gene polymorphism as a predictor for platinum-sensitivity in NSCLC patients.

Chlorhexidine and preservation of sound tooth structure in older adults. A placebo-controlled trial

The Trial to Enhance Elderly Teeth Health (TEETH) was designed to test the impact of regular rinsing with a 0.12% chlorhexidine (CHX) solution on tooth loss, and the causes of tooth loss (caries, periodontal disease and trauma) were also investigated. This paper reports on the effectiveness of a 0.12% CHX solution for controlling caries using a tooth surface (coronal and root) survival analysis. A total of 1,101 low income elders in Seattle (United States) and Vancouver (Canada), aged 60-75 years, were recruited for a double-blind clinical trial and assigned to either a CHX (n = 550) or a placebo (n = 551) mouth rinse. Subjects alternated between daily rinsing for 1 month, followed by weekly rinsing for 5 months. All sound coronal and root surfaces at baseline were followed annually for up to 5 years. At each follow-up examination, those tooth surfaces with caries, restored, or extracted were scored as 'carious'. The hazard ratio associated with CHX for a sound surface to become filled, decayed, or extracted was 0.87 for coronal surfaces (95% confidence interval: 0.71-1.14, p = 0.20) and 0.91 for root surfaces (95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.14, p = 0.41). These findings suggest that regular rinsing with CHX does not have a substantial effect on the preservation of sound tooth structure in older adults.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

Incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy over 20 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: We investigated the incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in 1996. METHODS: From 1988 through 2007, 226 cases of PML were reported to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. By chart review, we confirmed 186 cases and recorded all-cause and PML-attributable mortality. For the survival analysis, 25 patients with postmortem diagnosis and 2 without CD4+ T cell counts were excluded, leaving a total of 159 patients (89 before 1996 and 70 during 1996-2007). RESULTS: The incidence rate of PML decreased from 0.24 cases per 100 patient-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.29 cases per 100 PY) before 1996 to 0.06 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.04-0.10 cases per 100 PY) from 1996 onward. Patients who received a diagnosis before 1996 had a higher frequency of prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining conditions (P = .007) but similar CD4+ T cell counts (60 vs. 71 cells/microL; P = .25), compared with patients who received a diagnosis during 1996 or thereafter. The median time to PML-attributable death was 71 days (interquartile range, 44-140 days), compared with 90 days (interquartile range, 54-313 days) for all-cause mortality. The PML-attributable 1-year mortality rate decreased from 82.3 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 58.8-115.1 cases per 100 PY) during the pre-cART era to 37.6 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 23.4.-60.5 cases per 100 PY) during the cART era. In multivariate models, cART was the only factor associated with lower PML-attributable mortality (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.50; P < .001), whereas all-cause mortality was associated with baseline CD4+ T cell count (hazard ratio per increase of 100 cells/microL, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .010) and cART use (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.75; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: cART reduced the incidence and PML-attributable 1-year mortality, regardless of baseline CD4+ T cell count, whereas overall mortality was dependent on cART use and baseline CD4+ T cell count.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.